Six Flags Entertainment Corp/OLD (SIX)·Q3 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2023 delivered solid top-line growth: revenue $547.5M (+8% y/y) on 16% higher attendance (9.3M), while diluted EPS was $1.32 (-3% y/y) and Adjusted EBITDA was $219.9M (-2% y/y) amid heavier investment in advertising, events, and guest-facing digital initiatives .
• Mix shift back toward season passes pressured per caps: total guest spending per capita fell 8% to $56.37, with admissions per cap down 12% and in-park per cap down 2% y/y; sponsorship also increased, helping offset per-cap declines .
• Balance sheet/cash: total reported debt $2.273B; cash $66.8M; the company repaid $80M of debt in Q3; deferred revenue rose 17% y/y to $147.7M on stronger season pass sales; YTD capex $109.3M .
• Communication: Six Flags canceled its scheduled Q3 earnings call and provided no formal financial guidance, limiting near-term qualitative visibility; management emphasized progress in digital transformation, events expansion, and season-pass momentum for 2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Attendance and revenue growth despite weather: attendance +16% to 9.3M, revenue +8% to $547.5M, aided by stronger season pass sales and accelerated Fall events calendar .
  • Sponsorship and international grew: sponsorship, international agreements and accommodations revenue rose to $24.4M in Q3 (from $15.2M), contributing to overall revenue mix .
  • Strategic execution: “advancing our digital transformation and the expansion and acceleration of our events calendar” with season pass sales for next year “well ahead of this time last year,” per CEO Selim Bassoul .

• What Went Wrong

  • Per-cap pressure from mix: total guest spending per capita fell 8% to $56.37, driven by season-pass pricing optimization (admissions per cap -12%) and lower ancillary spend from a higher passholder mix (in-park per cap -2%) .
  • Profitability modestly softer y/y: diluted EPS $1.32 (-3% y/y) and Adjusted EBITDA $219.9M (-2% y/y), as costs rose with higher attendance, heavier advertising, earlier Fall events, and investments in entertainment and digital initiatives .
  • No Q3 call/guidance; prior reserve headwind lingers in YTD optics: company canceled its Q3 call and provided no guidance; Q2 included a $38M self-insurance reserve increase (change in estimate) impacting YTD comparability .

Financial Results

Summary performance – sequential trend (chronological: Q1 → Q3)

Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022

Revenue mix (Q3)

Balance sheet and cash flow (selected)

• Total reported debt: $2,273M; Cash: $66.8M; Debt repaid in Q3: $80M; Deferred revenue: $147.7M (+17% y/y); YTD capex: $109.3M .
• Operating income in Q3: $210.5M; Net interest expense in Q3: $38.3M .

Guidance Changes

Note: No updates to OI&E guidance, tax rate, segment targets, or dividend policy were provided in Q3 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Company did not host a Q3 call; themes reflect Q1/Q2 commentary versus Q3 press release.)

Management Commentary

• “We have put forth substantial effort this year to establish a baseline for sustainable and meaningful growth… advancing our digital transformation and the expansion and acceleration of our events calendar… season passes… well ahead of this time last year… In a year challenged by unusually difficult weather, we have been able to grow our attendance and increase revenues while… investing in our park infrastructure, attractions, and technology, as well as pay down debt.” — Selim Bassoul, President & CEO .
• “Despite a challenging weather backdrop in the first half of the year, we are seeing a return to a solid growth trajectory in attendance, revenue and earnings… investing significantly in park infrastructure and beautification… excited about… Oktoberfest Food Festival, Kids Boo Fest, Fright Fest, and Holiday in the Park… investing heavily in new marketable attractions [in 2024].” — Q2 release .

Q&A Highlights

• No Q3 earnings call or Q&A session was held; the company canceled the planned call and provided no transcript for Q3 2023 .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2023 EPS/Revenue/EBITDA was unavailable in our system for SIX at the time of analysis; as a result, we cannot assess beat/miss versus S&P Global consensus for Q3 2023. We default to S&P Global for estimates, and note explicitly that consensus data was unavailable in our dataset for this period.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Demand resilience: Attendance grew double-digits (+16% y/y) and revenue rose 8% despite weather headwinds, underpinned by season pass strength and expanded events; this supports a recovery narrative into 2024 .
• Mix trade-off: Season pass optimization is boosting traffic and deferred revenue but continues to pressure per caps (admissions -12% y/y; in-park -2%); sponsorship growth partially offsets .
• Investment cycle: Elevated advertising, earlier seasonal events, and digital/entertainment investments weighed modestly on y/y EPS/EBITDA in Q3; however, these are aimed at multi-quarter guest experience gains and monetization opportunities .
• Balance sheet progress: $80M debt reduction in Q3 and rising deferred revenue (+17% y/y) improve liquidity optics heading into peak planning for the 2024 season .
• 2024 setup: Management flagged “heavy” investment in marketable attractions next year, suggesting a catalyst-rich product slate that could support pricing power and attendance, though execution on per-cap recapture will be key .
• Disclosure caveat: The canceled Q3 call removes typical near-term qualitative context and guidance, potentially elevating uncertainty until the next formal update .
• What to watch: 1) season pass to single-day mix and per-cap stabilization, 2) sponsorship momentum, 3) cost discipline while funding events/digital, 4) incremental debt paydown and cash generation, and 5) reception to 2024 attractions slate .

Supporting detail and source references:

• Q3 2023 8-K earnings press release and financials .
• Q2 2023 8-K earnings press release and financials .
• Q1 2023 8-K earnings press release and financials .